The NBA Draft (Thursday, June 28 7 PM ET)

I can’t really explain why, but the NBA Draft is one of my favorite events of the year, especially the lottery (the first 13 picks). Watching a bunch of soon to be overpaid athletes wearing suits and shaking hands with David Stern shouldn’t be exciting, but it is. I think it’s probably a combination of factors: the extensive highlight reels, the last minute blockbuster trades, Bills Simmons jumping around talking about TUP (Tremendous Upside Potential).

This year’s draft is stacked, too. The NBA’s new rule that players must be one year out of high school to enter the draft stocked the college pool, and as a result the annual event this Thursday night will feature several players that many believe will be the future of the game.

So now for my contribution to draft frenzy. Using my extensive basketball knowledge and scouting talents (Note to Kevin McHale: I want a job), I offer my assessment of the top ten players in the draft (according to the common consensus of who the top ten are).

1) Greg Oden (Ohio State) Position: C, Height: 7-0, Weight: 245:

After Oden’s pre-draft workouts scouts started describing him as a freak. I’d say that’s accurate. His body is NBA ready, he’s more athletic than any man his size ought to be, and he’s a workhorse. Truly, he’s poised to become the next dominant big man in the mold of David Robinson and Patrick Ewing. His offense is still shaky, and breaking his wrist at the beginning of his freshman season didn’t help, but he is a defensive presence and will be an instant impact player. And watch out when the guy decides he’s gonna dunk. The real question is, will he be Hakeem Olajuwon (or worse, Sam Bowie) to Kevin Durant’s Michael Jordan? Only time will tell.

2) Kevin Durant (Texas) P: SF, H: 6-10, W: 190:

Could this kid be the next Jordan? Or even scarier, could he be better? He’s got height, plus a 7’5” wing span, and can score at will. He has a competitive edge that winners such as Jordan possess and Oden may lack. Offensively his arsenal is limitless as he can slash to the lane and dunk on a big or pull up to hit the 30 footer. His length makes him a good rebounder and promising defender. A lot was made of the fact that he couldn’t bench 185 even once at the combines, but I wouldn’t worry too much. He’s only 19 years old, and insiders say he is still growing. Plus, those are some long arms for the bench press. The craziest part is that Durant hasn’t even reached his potential. Here’s the fact of the matter: Oden WILL be great, Durant COULD be the best. My favorite player in the draft.

3) Al Horford (Florida) P: PF, H: 6-9, W: 235

Horford is NBA ready in the mold of Horace Grant or Carlos Boozer. He’s probably the strongest player in the draft and plays with his nose to the grindstone, making him a tenacious rebounder and defender. His offensive skills are good, but not great. He has good touch for a guy his size, but could work on his post moves.

4) Mike Conley (Ohio State) P: PG, H: 6-0, W: 170

I became a Conley believer during Ohio State’s Final Four run last season. Slashing to the lane with lightning quickness, dishing to teammates, and demonstrating his ability to run the point as it ought to be run, Conley led the Buckeyes while Oden was rendered virtually useless due to foul trouble. Oden may be the top pick in this draft, but Conley was responsible for Ohio State’s success. He could work on his shot, but his understanding of the game and the point guard position is uncanny for a player his age.


5) Yi Jianlian (China) P: PF, H: 7-0, W: 246

Yi is a little bit of a wildcard. He has been impressive in his pre-draft workouts, but they have been so closely guarded that it has been tough for scouts to get a read on his potential. He hasn’t played against any of the other players in this draft, so no one really knows where to place him. Clearly he can score, and he is big and athletic in the model of Dirk Nowitzki. The complaint, based on film of his team in China, is that he is too passive and tends to defer to teammates in crunch time. His birth certificate says he is 19, but it is widely believed that Chinese officials have altered the document and he is actually older. A lot of potential here, but also several big question marks.

6) Jeff Green (Georgetown) P: SF, H: 6-9, W: 225

I spent most of the college season thinking Green was overrated. I still think so. He’s a good athlete, but he has no particularly impressive offensive skills. He traveled when he hit that game winning shot to give the Hoyas a last second victory in the later rounds of the tournament. His shot is weak and he lacks killer instinct. He could become a good defender in the vein of Scottie Pippen, but I’d say he lacks the reach and lateral quickness. Could be a solid role player down the line, but not as elite as many seem to think.

7) Joakim Noah (Florida) P: PF, H: 6-11, W: 230

Same with this guy. Overrated. He’s a scrapper, and a hustler. He can D up. But Noah lacks anything resembling offense. His shot is a mess. He’s a very opportunistic scorer. Could be a solid role player on a good team (think Anderson Varejao of the Cavs), but will prove incapable of leading any team. With a draft this full of potential franchise players, I predict Noah will be a wasted pick.

8) Corey Brewer (Florida) P: SG, H: 6-8, W: 185

Florida teammate Corey Brewer, on the other hand, has tremendous potential as a shut-down defender. He’s got the length, quickness, and mental toughness to guard any position and to match up with top scorers. In that regard he’s a lot like Teyshaun Prince. He’s also got a good shot and a nose for getting to the basket. He needs to bulk up without losing any of his speed, but that shouldn’t be a huge problem (he’s got a lot of room to grow).

9) Spencer Hawes (Washington) P: C, H: 7-0, W: 230

Best case scenario: Hawes is the next Brad Miller. Worst case: he’s the next Michael Doleac. He’s a highly skilled big man, offensively speaking, but he lacks the athleticism necessary to become an imposing force.

10) Brandon Wright (North Carolina) P: PF, H: 6-10, W: 210

This is another kid with TUP. He’s one of the elite athletes in the draft, he’s long, and he can score. He could stand to get stronger, but he can jump out of the gym and has a decent shot for a guy his size. The biggest complaint is that he often appears lackadaisical, especially on defense, but his former coaches assure scouts that he is a hard worker and is very coachable. And the KG comparisons pique my interest.

There they are. The top ten in one of the best draft pools ever. Truth be told, it would be tough to screw up a top ten pick this year (but not impossible, McHale). Tomorrow will be a wild ride.

No post tomorrow (giving myself the day off), but come back on Friday for a post-draft assessment.

Thanks for reading.