Oh The Madness!

Listen closely, ladies and gents, and one can already hear the cries of victory and defeat, celebration and heartbreak, heroes and inevitable zeroes. This is the season of competitions settled in waning seconds, legends made in defining moments, upsets, cinderellas, sleepers, programs built or destroyed, myths made reality, dreams shattered.

This is March Madness

I dedicate this post to the spirit of the greatest sporting event of the year. Let’s talk about who we love, who we hate. Which team will make a surprise run into the elite eight? Which team is primed to be picked off in the early rounds? And keep in mind that this is largely speculation, which is the beauty of March Madness. Any one of these teams can hit a hot streak and ride it all the way to the Final Four in San Antonio. Likewise, a powerhouse by conventional wisdom could find themselves with an injured star, or unable to deal with an unanticipated full court press, or unable to cope with a hostile crowd, and turn out to be the flop of the tourney. Nobody knows. I’m as much a March Madness authority as those talking heads on ESPN. We all are. Eat it, Dick Vitale.

East Regional

Zot’s Favorites: The East is North Carolina’s to win or lose. They stay in their home state until the final four, where they will be enthusiastically supported by most of the North Carolina student body. It’s tough to root against consensus Player of the Year Tyler Hansbrough. Not only is he significantly stronger and smarter than any defender he faces (not to mention surprisingly athletic. Did anyone else see him dunk on 7-foot-7 Kenny George of UNC-Asheville?), he has the biggest heart of any player in recent memory. Note that when star PG Ty Lawson injured his ankle and sat out seven games, Hansbrough played out of his mind and willed the Tar Heels to a 6-1 record (despite lacking a feasible PG option).

Other Goodies: Overall, the East Regional seems designed to clear the way for North Carolina to mosey into the Final Four (which is precisely why they’ll probably lose). The problem here is consistency. There are some teams that can be very good. Tennessee, if they’re hot, will dominate. But if they’re cold, they’ll have trouble winning (more on this later). For a good chunk of the season Indiana was a great team, but they’ve shown a tendency to choke on the big stage (and they lost to the Gophers in the Big 10 tourney). I like Notre Dame to get into the Sweet Sixteen. They can put up big numbers and I’ve seen some impressive wins from them this season, but they would need an otherworldly effort from Luke Harangody (a lot to ask considering he’ll most likely be covered by Hansbrough) to get past UNC.

Houston, We Have a Problem: Watch out for Tennessee. If they’re on, they could make a bracket or two. They can score like madmen, are surprisingly resourceful and scrappy (and have shown themselves to be capable of rising to the occasion when they beat then #1 Memphis), and if they’re shooting well…yikes (their offense is designed to shoot in the first seven seconds of the shot clock). On the other hand, they live and die with the 3-ball. Come tournament time, I hate teams that need to be shooting well from distance to win. Three of their starters are 6-2, and the tallest guy in their 7 or 8-man rotation is 6-9. What happens if they’re shooting poorly?

Sleeper: South Alabama gets to play their first two games close to home (Birmingham), have a couple of solid guards, and thrive in an up-tempo setting (which should help them against Tennessee in the second round). But will they be able to keep up with Tennessee’s star power?

Midwest regional

Zot’s Favorites: The Wisconsin Badgers play fundamental basketball, solid defense, and completely lack star power. I love them for it. They have the experience and scrappiness to keep any game close, will squeak past Georgetown when Hibbert inevitably finds himself in foul trouble, and do the same to Kansas when they inevitably self-destruct. They don’t rely on any one player to have a huge game to win, making them greater than the sum of their parts. They will have trouble if any of their opponents are able get out and run on them, as this lack of stardom means they may have trouble keeping up in a score-fest.

Other Goodies: Clemson looked strong in two games against the Tar Heels (one I watched in its entirety, the other I saw highlights) losing both in overtime. Buyer beware: their free throw shooting is a major liability.

Houston, We Have a Problem: I’ll grant that this isn’t really fare considering they aren’t necessarily a top seed, but USC has been getting a lot of hype in recent days, and I’d like to be the first to dispel any rumors that they might get past the second round. Big man Taj Gibson is their cornerstone and sole inside presence, but seems to find himself watching many games from the bench after early foul trouble. Freshman phenom OJ Mayo is almost as over-hyped as Indiana star Eric Gordon. Folks, when you shoot 5 for 23 from the field and 10 for 17 from the charity stripe, it wasn’t a good game. I don’t really care that you scored 20 points. It was a bad game.

Sleeper: I like Davidson. Sophomore guard Stephen Curry (son of former NBA player Dell Curry) is a bonafide star who can score at will. If he’s hot there’s no reason he can’t put up 50. Plus, they’ve won 22 straight games. That’s not easy.

South Regional

Zot’s Favorites: Memphis lost one game in the regular season to a very good Tennessee team that played very well. Joey Dorsey was in foul trouble early. Dozier had his head up his ass till late in the second half. Douglas-Roberts had an off game. Now everyone’s talking about Memphis like they’re a weak one seed. Bullspit. I’ll take the Memphis starting 5 over any other starting 5 in the game. Dorsey is a strong, mean and dominant enforcer on the inside, one capable of locking down any big man in the game (I’m looking at you, Kevin Love). Rose is an explosive and powerful PG that will either out-run or out-muscle the opposition. Douglas-Roberts is a pure scorer and underrated defender. Look at what this team did in the regular season. They didn’t just win a lot of games. They destroyed and embarrassed the competition. I’d be hard pressed to pick any other team to win the whole thing.

Other Goodies: I’ll never understand why Memphis and North Carolina, easily the top two teams during the season, have to deal with Texas and Tennessee as their number twos while Kansas gets an over-hyped, offensively incompetent Georgetown and UCLA (who must be in bed with the bracketologists) gets to face the prep school masquerading as Duke (more on them to come). Texas is a giant killer, having beaten both Kansas and UCLA, and Tennessee got screwed out of a one seed. Texas’ DJ Augustin is one of the top guards in the country and if they do face Memphis it will be in Houston. On the other hand, I believe Rose will absolutely lock Augustin down, and Texas loves the 3. We all know how I feel about that.

Houston, We Have a Problem: This is a great region for teams that have found their way into my doghouse. Oregon refuses to play defense and shouldn’t be in the tourney at all, let alone have a nine seed. I always bet against Pittsburgh, though I can’t explain why. I just don’t like them. Same rule applies for Michigan State, and this year’s squad is particularly schizophrenic. I watched a game where they scored 36 points. That’s bad.

Sleeper: I like both 13 seed Oral Roberts and 12 seed Temple. It helps that they’re matched up against my problem teams in the in the first round and could realistically pull off an upset, depending on which Pitt and Michigan St. teams show up to play. Temple has won seven straight, and Oral Roberts is an athletic bunch.

West Regional

Zot’s Favorites: As I’ve mentioned, UCLA must have the selection committee in its front pocket, because on paper their road to the Final Four couldn’t get much easier. Could it be that three out of four number one seeds make it to San Antonio?

Other Goodies: Xavier is an extremely well balanced team that loves shootouts. They match up favorably with most of the opposition, and their first real test won’t come until they face UCLA in the Elite Eight.

Houston, We Have a Problem: I hate hate hate this Duke team. They have no inside presence whatsoever, relying solely on the 3. I hope it’s clear by now how I feel about that. These are the types of people who would pull up outside the arc when they have a 3 on 1 fast break, a la Troy Hudson. Yes, they did beat North Carolina, but Lawson was out at the time and his replacement, Thomas, was still new to the job. They followed it up with a series of uninspiring losses to unranked teams. The fact that Duke is perpetually over ranked is the most blatant representation of committee bias.

Sleeper: Watch out for BYU and Purdue. BYU is athletic and can shoot. If they’re hot they’re dangerous. Purdue is young and inexperienced, but has beaten some big time schools (swept Wisconsin, beat Louiseville).


Several of the people reading this blog are participating in a pool on Yahoo sports. If you look closely, you’ll notice that my picks here don’t always line up with the picks I actually made in my bracket.

Explanation: This is a guessing game. Some knowledge of college basketball may be helpful, but more often than not the winner of a pool will be a computer programmer who spends his free time playing World of Warcraft. I’m in a couple of different pools, and in case I’m completely off base, I’ve gone to great lengths to make my brackets as varied as possible.

Let the games begin.

Thanks for reading.